October is a busy month for the International Energy Agency (IEA). Two weeks ago, they released their flagship report, the World Energy Outlook, which explores pathways to net zero as well as less ambitious scenarios. The report highlights the impacts of some of the ongoing geopolitical tensions but also predicts a possible abundance (and diversity) of fuels and that the world will be increasingly electrified.
Yesterday (30 Oct), they released their major technology report Energy Technology Perspectives 2024, which focuses on the outlook for the top six mass-manufactured clean energy technologies: solar PV (photovoltaics), wind turbines, electric cars, batteries, electrolysers (to produce hydrogen), and heat pumps.
Of course, the challenge of the transition is not just about technology but the social and distributional impacts. Earlier this year, IEA released a report on ‘affordable and fair’ clean energy transitions, which is at least adjacent to the broader concept of the ‘just transition’. Moreover, rather than just thinking about what the future holds, it is essential to assess current progress, not just on decarbonisation but on issues like energy access.
One reason for this timing is that these reports feed into the annual conference of the parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change held at the end of each year. Bridging the past and the future are national commitments to actions. In 2015 at COP21 in Paris, countries agreed to keep the increase in global temperatures below 2C, with the aim of not exceeding a 1.5C rise. To meet those goals, all countries agreed to submit a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) every five years to indicate their action plans. In a few weeks, COP29 will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan (although this is now the second year in a row for the conference to be hosted by a major fossil fuel exporter).
Are you optimistic about the upcoming negotiations in Baku? More generally, are you optimistic about the global community meeting the goals agreed at Paris in 2015? What about your own country (or any other country you wanted to discuss!)? Does their NDC seem achievable? What are your main sources for optimism or pessimism?